5 Jun

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

Once again, the Canadian economy is running hotter than expected by the Bank of Canada. The economy continues to exhibit excess demand conditions. In particular, labour markets are very tight, the unemployment rate is near a record low, and wages are rising by more than 5%.

Consumer spending is still strong, and the housing market has bounced considerably. Home sales were up 11% in April, prices are rising again in many regions, especially the GTA and GVA, and new listings are so slim that it is now a sellers’ market. This should bring some potential sellers off the sidelines in May and June. However, demand is likely to remain well more than supply, given the influx of many immigrants and the constraints on the construction of new housing.

The April inflation data was stronger than expected at 4.4%, indicating that the mid-year forecast of 3% might well be overly optimistic. Some are already calling for a rate hike by the central bank this month or in July. While that might be premature, the Bank will consider at least one more increase in the overnight policy rate if the May data is robust.

This is at a time when homeowners are already feeling the pinch of the rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. Homeowners who bought in 2020 and 2022 and financed with variable-rate mortgages are already under pressure. And those with fixed-rate mortgages will refinance at substantially higher interest rates.

Already, many households have monthly payments that do not cover the interest on their loans, let alone the principal. Many lenders are allowing extended amortization. CMHC announced they would not extend the amortization of newly insured mortgages beyond 25 years.

One thing is sure. Do not expect monetary policy easing any time this year.

5 Jun

10 Money Saving Tips!

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

When it comes to saving money, there are a lot of little things you can do that add up to make a big difference!

Here are 10 of my favourite money-saving tips to help get you started today:

  1. Automatic Savings are one of the most effective ways to save because you can’t spend what you can’t access! Instruct your employer to transfer a certain amount from your paycheck each pay period into an RRSP or savings account (or both) or set up automatic transfers in your banking account to coincide with your payday.
  2. Consolidating Debt will result in a single monthly payment and lower interest costs! Many people don’t realize just how much money they are wasting on interest each month, especially if you have multiple loans or credit cards. Consolidating debt can help you gain control and maximize spend on the principal amounts to pay off loans faster.
  3. Budget with Cash if you have trouble with overspending or find it too easy to use your card. After your bills are paid, take out the remaining cash (spending money) and only use that. Once the cash is gone, you’re out of money until next payday! Having physical cash in hand can also help you think twice when making purchases.
  4. Buying in Bulk is a great way to save a bit here and a bit there when doing your regular grocery shop or purchasing other items. Know you’ll need more? Stock up at once for bulk savings, which will help you in the long run!
  5. Before Buying there are two things you should always do. The first is to wait at least 24 hours and the second is to shop around! If you still want to buy something the next day, make sure you get the best price available!
  6. Plan Your Meals. Most of us don’t have time to make breakfast (let alone lunch!) before we fly out the door for work. But what if I told you that getting up an hour earlier could save you over $100 a week!? Just think about how much you spend going out for breakfast AND lunch each day? Groceries are a lot cheaper and you can even prep a few days worth of meals on Sunday while you get ready for the week.
  7. Think in Hours versus Dollars every time you are looking to make a purchase, especially large ones to help you understand the TIME value of money. A new $24 Blu-Ray = 1 hour of work. A brand-new mattress = 41.67 hours of work. Understanding the time that went into earning money for a purchase can help with reconsidering frivolous items, or encourage you to look for the best deal on necessary products.
  8. Utility Savings can help you save each month! Don’t blast your A/C with all the doors in your house open, don’t pump the heat without sealing cracks and consider things like installing water-saving toilets and running cold-water wash cycles to save energy (and money!) every day.
  9. Master DIY – While sometimes you can spend $120 to make a $20 item yourself, there are some things that do benefit from DIY, such installing dimmer switches, that can help save you money in the long run.
  10. Save Windfalls and Tax Refunds for a rainy day. A good rule of thumb is to put 50% of bonuses, tax refunds or other windfalls into your savings account and put the rest against loans owing. While you might want to go on a shopping spree or plan a vacation, paying off your debt NOW will free you up in the future.
5 Jun

First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is specifically designed to help first-time homebuyers save for their down payment without having to pay taxes on the interest earned on their savings.

This means that the interest earned on the savings in the account is not taxed, nor are withdrawals from the account.

Plus, since your contributions to this account are not taxed, your money will have the opportunity to grow faster in an FHSA than a traditional savings account.

If you are interested in creating a FHSA, there are a few things to note:

  • This savings account is eligible to Canadian residents who are at least 18 years of age.
  • You are a first-time homebuyer – you and/or your spouse or common-law partner have not owned a home where you lived in the year in which you open the account or at any time in the previous four years.
  • Allows you to contribute tax-free for up to 15 years.
  • The maximum contribution is $8,000 annually, plus up to $8,000 of your unused contribution room*.
  • Maximum lifetime contribution limit is $40,000.
  • Setting up automatic contributions can help you stay on track.

*You can carry forward any unused FHSA contribution room from the prior years up to a maximum of $8,000 (subject to your lifetime contribution limit of $40,000). Therefore, if you contribute less than $8,000 in a given year, you can contribute the unused amount in a subsequent year in addition to the $8,000 annual contribution limit for that year.

Another thing to consider is combining the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) with the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) to help you purchase a qualifying home. The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) allows you to withdraw up to $35,000 from your RRSP to buy a home. Keep in mind, you will need to repay the amount you draw for the Home Buyers’ Plan within 15 years back to your RRSP, PRPP or SPP.

If you are interested in setting up an FHSA or learning more, please don’t hesitate to contact me today!

1 Jun

First Quarter Canadian GDP Was Stronger Than Expected Pushing the BoC Closer To Rate Hikes

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

Good News Is Bad News For The Bank Of Canada
The Canadian economy continues to show marked resilience to high-interest rates. Statistics Canada released data this morning showing real GDP rose at an above-consensus 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. The estimate for April growth was also firm, a harbinger of continued strength in Q2. The combined drags of the public sector strike and the Alberta wildfires didn’t cause a significant downdraft.

First-quarter growth was driven by strong international trade and robust household spending. These factors were partly mitigated by slower inventory accumulation and declines in new housing construction and business investment in machinery and equipment.

After two quarters of minimal growth, household spending rose for goods (+1.5%) and services (+1.3%) in the first quarter of 2023. Expenditures on durable goods (+3.3%) were driven by motor vehicles, including new trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles (+7.8%). Spending on semi-durables (+4.3%) was led by garments (+4.5%), while spending on non-durable goods (-0.2%) declined slightly.

Service spending picked up in the first quarter of 2023, led by food and non-alcoholic beverage services (+4.4%), and alcoholic beverage services (+6.5%). Meanwhile, travel was on the rise, with expenditures by Canadians abroad up 6.8% in the first quarter, compared with a 3.3% decrease in the previous quarter.

These data do not portend a household sector overly burdened by rising mortgage and credit card payments.

Coinciding with higher borrowing costs and slowing mortgage borrowing, housing investment fell 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023, the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease. The decline in investment was widespread—as new construction (-6.0%), renovations (-2.1%), and ownership transfer costs (-1.5%), which represents resale activity, were all down.

We know housing activity has picked up considerably since the first quarter, undoubtedly adding to Q2 growth. Also expansionary is the persistent rise in employee compensation, led by salary gains in professional and personal services, manufacturing and construction.

One warning sign is the declining household savings rates and slower disposable income. Persistently high interest rates had a predominantly negative effect on net property income, as increases in interest income (+6.4%), mainly from deposits, did not keep pace with higher interest payments on mortgages (+14.7%) and consumer credit (+10.9%).

In contrast with lower disposable income, consumption expenditures (in nominal terms) rose 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023. This was faster than the 1.4% pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, partly due to inflationary pressures. As a result, the household saving rate was 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 5.8% at the end of 2022. The household saving rate approached the pre-pandemic level, which averaged 2.1% in 2019.

Business incomes fell significantly in Q1, and judging from the stock market, corporate earnings news has also been disappointing across a wide array of sectors in the second quarter.

Bottom Line

The strength in today’s data and the higher-than-expected inflation number for April will cause the Bank of Canada to seriously consider raising the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% when they meet again next week. I think they will hold off to see the May employment and inflation data before they pull the trigger.

Markets have already responded to the numbers. Short-term interest rates remain well above levels posted earlier this year, although that is mainly about the debt-ceiling issue in the U.S. The Bank’s statement will undoubtedly be rather hawkish.

Dr. Sherry Cooper