Is a jumbo rate cut on the way this month?

An ex-member of the Bank of Canada’s governing body said officials should cut borrowing costs by half a percentage point later this month.

There are “good reasons” to move interest rates “back to as close to neutral as quickly as possible,” former Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said, including boosting household and business optimism.

Now that policymakers are more sure that wage growth, expectations and corporate pricing are going in the right direction, Beaudry sees borrowing costs moving lower faster as the bank eyes a sustainable return to 2% inflation.

“The preconditions were there to kind of start moving down; you want to move that down quickly,” Beaudry said in an interview on the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce podcast Curve Your Enthusiasm that aired Monday.

“I would really bet on 50 basis points,” he said, referring to the bank’s Oct. 23 meeting. Giving some monetary stimulus back amid the slowness in Canada’s economy would also help in “getting that message across” to consumers and firms.

“When you want to turn things around, you want to get the confidence going,” he said.

The comments came amid a shift in interest rate expectations in North America after US employment data surprised to the upside on Friday. That prompted traders in overnight swaps to price in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark overnight rate reaching near 3% by July of next year, and put the odds of a 50 basis point cut at the central bank’s decision later this month at about 25%.

In the interview, Beaudry said the Bank of Canada tries to communicate where it’s going by sharing its take on the economy, and doesn’t intend to shock participants with decisions unless necessary.

“It really doesn’t like to surprise the market, but it’s ready to surprise the market if it’s needed given the data,” he said.

At 4.25%, the benchmark rate continues to weigh on growth. The central bank says the neutral rate — a theoretical level of interest rates that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy — is 2.75%. While Beaudry admits there’s uncertainty about the precise level, he reiterated that its clear borrowing costs should fall “pretty quickly and get there.”

“Things will go fast until we get into that zone. Then there’ll be a little bit of searching,” he said.

Statistics Canada reports September employment data on Friday, and Beaudry said officials probably still see the elevated unemployment rate — which hit 6.6% in August — as broader evidence of slack. Only an uptick or turnaround in underlying inflation would change their view of the labor market.

“Even if things came out a bit stronger in this next report, I don’t think that would change the Bank of Canada’s view extremely,” he said.

“There should be a really aggressive cut.”

Source CMP
By Bloomberg
By Erik Hertzberg