24 Apr

Weakening Housing Markets Pose A Risk For The Canadian Economy

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

On April 18, Canada’s national banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), released its second Annual Risk Outlook (ARO), outlining what it believes are the most significant headwinds facing the Canadian financial system – and what the regulator plans on doing about it.

According to the report, the severe downturn in real estate prices and demand following their significant rise during the pandemic was the most pressing issue. OSFI acknowledges that the housing market changed significantly over the past year, and house prices fell substantially in 2022. The regulator is preparing for the possibility that the housing market will experience continued weakness throughout 2023.

The report also highlights how the Bank of Canada’s rate hiking cycle has impacted borrowers’ ability to pay down mortgage debt, with the central bank increasing its benchmark cost of borrowing eight times between March 2022 and January 2023, bringing its Overnight Lending Rate from a pandemic low of 0.25% to 4.5% today.

Mortgage holders may be unable to afford continued increases in monthly payments or may experience a significant payment shock at the time of their mortgage renewal, leading to higher default probabilities. Given the considerable impact of real estate-secured lending (RESL) activities in the Canadian financial system, a housing market downturn remains a critical risk.

OSFI also highlights the dangers posed by more borrowers hitting their trigger rates; according to a National Bank study, eight in ten variable fixed-payment borrowers who took their mortgages out between 2020-2022 are impacted. Lenders have addressed this by extending the amortization period for affected borrowers, but OSFI says this is just a temporary solution.

Borrowers and lenders alike will need to pay the price in due course, as OSFI points out. The growth in highly leveraged borrowers increases the risk of weaker credit performance, potentially leading to more borrower defaults, a disorderly market reaction, and broader economic uncertainty and volatility.

These recent comments strengthen expectations that stricter mortgage rules could be in the cards before the year ends. Back in January, OSFI announced it was considering making tweaks to its Guideline B-20, which outlines borrowing and risk requirements for banks underwriting residential mortgages and qualification rules for borrowers, including the mortgage stress test.

OSFI may increase borrowers’ debt servicing ratio requirements, making it more challenging for those with larger debt loads to qualify for a mortgage. It is also considering limiting how many of these higher-leveraged borrowers banks can have in their portfolios, potentially leading to fewer borrowers making the cut at A-lenders and turning to the B-side and alternative mortgage market.

Finally, OSFI may change the threshold criteria for the mortgage stress test. Currently, borrowers must prove they can carry their mortgage at a rate of 5.25%, or 2% above the one they’ll receive from their lender, whichever is higher. However, following last year’s rapid rate increases, the 5.25% threshold has become obsolete, with all current market rates above 3.25%.

OSFI wrapped up consultations on these potential changes late last week and will release a report on its recommendations. Borrowers should keep an eye out for changes in the months to come.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
22 Apr

Great News On The Inflation Front

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell sharply in March to 4.3% year-over-year, continuing a pattern of repeated declines. Before we break out the champagne, however, much of the drop in inflation resulted from the steep monthly increase in prices in March one year ago (1.4% m/m), the so-called base-year effects.

Gasoline prices have fallen sharply since March 2022–down year-over-year by a whopping -13.8%. This was the second consecutive month in which gas prices caused inflation to fall. The fall in gasoline prices was mainly driven by steep price increases in March 2022, when gasoline rose 11.8% month-over-month due to supply uncertainty following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This increased crude oil prices, which pushed prices at the pump higher for Canadians. Gasoline price inflation was transitory.

There is no question that lower inflation portends a continued rate pause by the Bank of Canada.

Inflation at 4.3% was the smallest rise since August 2021. On a year-over-year basis, Canadians paid more in mortgage interest costs, offset by a decline in energy prices.Excluding food and energy, prices were up 4.5% year over year in March, following a 4.8% gain in February, while the all-items CPI excluding mortgage interest cost rose 3.6% after increasing 4.7% in February.

Two key yearly measures tracked closely by the central bank — the so-called trim and median core rates — also dropped, averaging 4.5%, in line with forecasts.

On a monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in March, following a 0.4% gain in February. Travel tours (+36.7%) contributed the most to the headline month-over-month movement, largely driven by increased seasonal demand during the March break. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1%.

While headline inflation has slowed in recent months, having increased 1.7% in March compared with six months ago, prices remain elevated. Compared with 18 months ago, for example, inflation has increased by 8.7%.
On a year-over-year basis, price growth for durable goods slowed in March (+1.6%) compared with February (+3.4%). Furniture prices led the deceleration in prices for durable goods, falling 0.3% year over year in March, following a 7.2% increase in February. The decline was primarily due to a base-year effect, as furniture prices rose 8.2% month over month in March 2022 amid supply chain issues.

Prices for passenger vehicles also contributed to the deceleration in prices for durable goods, increasing at a slower pace year over year in March 2023 (+4.7%) compared with February (+5.3%). Higher prices for passenger vehicles in March 2022, due to the global shortage of semiconductor chips, put downward pressure on the index in March 2023.

Month over month, new passenger vehicle prices were up 1.3% in March, attributable to the higher availability of new 2023-model-year vehicles. For comparison, prices for used cars rose 0.6% month over month in March, after a 1.9% decline in February.

Homeowners’ replacement costs continued to slow in March, rising 1.7% year over year compared with a 3.3% increase in February, reflecting a general cooling of the housing market.

In contrast, mortgage interest costs rose faster in March (+26.4%) compared with February (+23.9%). This was the most significant yearly increase on record as Canadians continued to renew and initiate mortgages at higher interest rates.

There has finally been some relief in grocery price inflation. Year over year, prices for food purchased from stores rose to a lesser extent in March (+9.7%) than in February (+10.6%), with the slowdown stemming from lower prices for fresh fruit and vegetables.

Service inflation slowed to 5.1% in March. But in a sign wage pressures could be picking up, more than 155,000 federal workers are set to go on strike starting Wednesday if no deal is reached on their talks with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government by Tuesday night.
Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is no doubt delighted that inflation continues to cool. The Bank expects price gains to reach 3% by midyear and return to near their 2% target by the end of 2024. But they said getting the prices back to 2% could prove more difficult because inflation expectations are coming down slowly, and service prices and wage growth remain elevated.

Governor Tiff Macklem, speaking at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington recently, said the Bank of Canada is prepared to end quantitative tightening earlier than planned if the economy needs stimulation. Quantitative tightening is the selling of government bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet, which takes money out of the economy.

Macklem said his officials discussed hiking rates further during deliberations for the April 12th decision to continue to pause and reiterated that “it is far too early to be thinking about cutting interest rates.”

His comments provide a glimpse into the Bank of Canada’s strategy for shrinking its balance sheet, which ballooned to more than $570 billion during the pandemic as it bought large quantities of government bonds — to restore market functioning during the initial Covid shock and then to provide a stimulus for the economy.
The remarks show an acknowledgment among policymakers that their plans could shift if there’s a negative economic shock that requires a loosening of monetary policy.

According to Bloomberg News, swaps traders are now betting the Bank of Canada’s next move will be a cut later this year. The governor pushed back on those expectations in a press conference this week. He and his officials discussed the possibility that rates need “to remain restrictive for longer to get inflation all the way back to target.”

In a speech last month, Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said quantitative tightening will likely end in late 2024 or early 2025. That marked the first time the Bank of Canada put a date on abandoning the program.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
12 Apr

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Again But Maintains Its Commitment To 2% Inflation

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

The Bank of Canada left the overnight policy rate at 4.5%, as expected, stating their view that inflation will hit 3% by mid-year and reach the 2% target by next year. They admit, however, that demand continues to exceed supply, wage gains are too high, and labour markets are still very tight. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

“Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth. While the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth. Strong population gains are adding to labour supply and supporting employment growth while also boosting aggregate consumption. Housing market activity remains subdued.”

The Bank expects consumption spending to moderate this year “as more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly.”

“Overall, GDP growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year. This implies the economy will move into excess supply in the second half of this year. The Bank now projects Canada’s economy to grow by 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025”.
Most economists believe the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and begin cutting interest rates in 2024. A few even think that rate cuts will begin late this year.

In contrast, the Fed hiked the overnight fed funds rate by 25 bps on March 22 despite the banking crisis and the expectation that credit conditions would tighten. This morning, the US released its March CPI report showing inflation has fallen to 5% year-over-year. Next Tuesday, April 18, Canada will do the same. The base year effect has depressed y/y inflation. Canada’s CPI will likely have a four-handle.

Fed officials next meet in early May, and it is widely expected that the Fed will continue to raise the policy rate while the Bank will continue the pause.

Due to the differences in our mortgage markets and the higher debt-to-income level in Canada, our economy is much more interest-sensitive. Despite these disparate expectations, the Canadian dollar has held up relatively well.
Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada upgraded its growth projections for this year in a new forecast, suggesting the odds of a soft landing have increased. This may preclude interest rate cuts this year.

“Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target,” the bank said.

The April Monetary Policy Report suggests strong Q1 growth resulted from substantial immigration. With the population proliferating, labour shortages should continue to decline, and inflation will fall to 3% later this year. The global growth backdrop is better than expected, though the Bank continues to look for a slowdown in the coming months, citing the lagged effects of rate hikes and the recent banking sector strains.

Governor Macklem said in the press conference that the economy needs cooler growth to corral inflation, although the Bank’s forecast does not include an outright recession.

The Bank will refrain from cutting rates this year. The Governor explicitly said at the press conference that market pricing of rate cuts later this year is not the most likely scenario.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
12 Apr

Bank of Canada has left its key interest rate unchanged

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation in many countries is easing in the face of lower energy prices, normalizing global supply chains, and tighter monetary policy. At the same time, labour markets remain tight and measures of core inflation in many advanced economies suggest persistent price pressures, especially for services.

Global economic growth has been stronger than anticipated. Growth in the United States and Europe has surprised on the upside, but is expected to weaken as tighter monetary policy continues to feed through those economies. In the United States, recent stress in the banking sector has tightened credit conditions further. US growth is expected to slow considerably in the coming months, with particular weakness in sectors that are important for Canadian exports. Meanwhile, activity in China’s economy has rebounded, particularly in services. Overall, commodity prices are close to their January levels. The Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects global growth of 2.6% this year, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025.

In Canada, demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight. Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth. While the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth. Strong population gains are adding to labour supply and supporting employment growth while also boosting aggregate consumption. Housing market activity remains subdued.

As more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly, consumption is expected to moderate this year. Softening foreign demand is expected to restrain exports and business investment. Overall, GDP growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year. This implies the economy will move into excess supply in the second half of this year. The Bank now projects Canada’s economy to grow by 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025.

CPI inflation eased to 5.2% in February, and the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation were just under 5%. The Bank expects CPI inflation to fall quickly to around 3% in the middle of this year and then decline more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Recent data is reinforcing Governing Council’s confidence that inflation will continue to decline in the next few months. However, getting inflation the rest of the way back to 2% could prove to be more difficult because inflation expectations are coming down slowly, service price inflation and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behaviour has yet to normalize. As it sets monetary policy, Governing Council will be particularly focused on these indicators, and the evolution of core inflation, to gauge the progress of CPI inflation back to target.

In light of its outlook for growth and inflation, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%. Quantitative tightening continues to complement this restrictive stance. Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 7, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 12, 2023.

7 Apr

Bank of Canada Not Happy With Another Strong Jobs Report

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

This morning’s Jobs Report was again solid. Job creation, though more tempered than in earlier months, is still robust. The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive month. Very troubling to the Bank of Canada was the wage inflation, still above 5%.

No doubt the Bank does not welcome this news. But the jobs market is a lagging indicator, so the BoC will likely continue the pause on April 12th. DLC will host another In Conversation on that date with President, Eddy Cocciollo, and myself – stay tuned for more details.

The economy will report about 1.5% GDP growth in Q1–up from zero growth at the end of last year. Consumer spending remains strong, and the early indications suggest that the housing market is picking up and prices are rising on limited supply. As the year progresses, supply shortages will become more evident, and rent will increase sharply, making ownership more attractive.

All eyes will be on OSFI mid-month when the comment period on new initiatives end. The Department of Finance wants banks to ease credit conditions, especially for VRM borrowers now running negative amortization. OSFI has different ideas, especially with a mini banking crisis in the US and Switzerland.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
3 Apr

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

In March, the global economy was focused on systemic risk in the banking sector.

Following three bank failures in the U.S., markets were roiled again by the forced sale of Credit Suisse to UBS.

Interest rates have plummeted as demand for the haven of government bonds has increased sharply. Consequently, five-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen roughly 30 basis points as the Fed pondered its next move.

Inevitably, failed banks and fears of additional losses have led many financial institutions to tighten their provision of credit. Although interest rates have fallen worldwide, more cautious lending will slow economic activity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, ground zero for bank failures.

For that reason, many expected the Fed to pause to assess the situation further. The Fed raised its overnight policy rate 25 bps to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, now above the overnight rate in Canada.

Just over two weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress that inflation pressures warranted higher-than-expected interest rates. With the bank failures, the Fed suggests that the target level might be only one or two moves away. However, even with that, the U.S. central bank reasserted that interest rates determined by the Fed will not be reduced until next year.

Market-determined yields have fallen sharply, especially at the short end of the yield curve—increasing the inversion in the yield curve. An inverted yield curve portends a more aggressive economic slowdown, reflected in the fall in oil and gas prices.

Canada’s yield curve moved almost as much as in the U.S. Good news on the inflation front affirmed the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause. Consumer price inflation fell last month from 5.9% to 5.2%. The Bank will likely pause again at its next meeting in April.

Canadian bank stocks fell quite a bit, mirroring global trends. Our banks are in no danger of failing. Like the 2008 Financial Crisis, Canadian banks have proven to be very soundly regulated.

Lower mortgage rates are great news for the coming Spring season. While it won’t measure up to the 2021 boom, a rebound in sales and new listings will be great for the industry.

3 Apr

Spring Cleaning Tips

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

As the sun starts coming back around, it is a great time to scrub those windows and deep clean your home!

Here are some tips for a successful Spring clean:

  1. Create a Playlist: Everything is more fun with a great playlist! Not only is music great therapy but it can make the cleaning process go by quicker and make it more enjoyable.
  2. Clean One Room at a Time: While we all like seeing our homes sparkly and fresh, it can sometimes be an overwhelming process to get to that point. To help minimize the stress, work one room at a time! Start with the smaller rooms, or those that need the least amount of cleaning, and work your way up to the larger, project rooms. Another option is to tackle one or two rooms each weekend for the month and by the time May comes, you’ll be ready!
  3. Declutter as You Go: Spring cleaning isn’t just about shining up the brass on the door and dusting. It is just as important to declutter your space! Before you start cleaning the room, it is a good idea to pinpoint items that can be discarded, such as old magazines and papers, as well as to go through closets and cupboards for anything that you can donate (like that sweater you bought and never wore). This will clear up space for new clothing and items and will make you feel that much more accomplished!
  4. Think Green: Spring cleaning allows us to start the season off on a fresh, clean note. Don’t muddy that up with harsh chemical cleaners. In today’s eco-friendly environment, there are many safe alternatives to regular cleaners. Vinegar is a great substitute in the bathroom or kitchen as well as combining vinegar, baking soda and water as a deep clean alternative. You can also opt for a steam cleaner to manage tile, hardwood floors, appliances and even outdoor areas as they only use hot water and vapor.
  5. Work From Top to Bottom: Starting from the ceiling and working your way down just makes sense! This will force debris downward and save you having to re-clean your space. Dusting first will prevent a headache later too!
  6. Don’t Forget The Fridge & Freezer: The best time to clean out your fridge and freezer is right before you do your grocery shop, so they will be at their most empty. Take everything out and dispose of anything that is past its expiration date and any almost-empty items you won’t use. Before you restock be sure to wipe down the interior of the fridge with disinfectant and a damp cloth. The same can be done for the freezer but you’ll have to defrost it first!
  7. Clean Air Reduces Allergies: Replacing furnace and HVAC filters is one of the most overlooked parts of Spring cleaning. Going as far as replacing your standard filter with a more robust one with a higher rating will help keep you even healthier this year as they catch smaller particles to ensure your home is void of allergen triggers, chemicals and even odors.
3 Apr

Choosing Your Ideal Payment Frequency

General

Posted by: Mike Hattim

Your payment schedule is the frequency that you make mortgage payments and ranges from monthly to bi-monthly, bi-weekly, accelerated bi-weekly or even weekly payments.

Below is a quick overview of what each of these payment frequencies mean:

Monthly Payments: A monthly payment is simply a single large payment, paid once per month; this is the default that sets your amortization. A 25-year mortgage, paid monthly, will take 25 years to pay off but includes the added burden of one larger payment coming from one employment pay period. With this payment frequency, you make 12 payments per year.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a monthly payment of $4,156.19. No term savings; no amortization savings.

Bi-Weekly Payments: A bi-weekly mortgage payment is a total of 26 payments per year, calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and divided by the 26 pay periods.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a bi-weekly payment of $1,915.98 with term savings of $177 and total amortization savings of $1,769.

Accelerated Bi-Weekly Payments: An accelerated bi-weekly mortgage payment is also 26 payments per year, but the payment amount is higher than a regular bi-weekly payment frequency. Opting for an accelerated bi-weekly payment will not only pay your mortgage off quicker, but it’s guaranteed to save you a significant amount of money over the term of your mortgage. This frequency also allows the mortgage payment to be split up into smaller payments vs a single, larger payment per month. This is especially ideal for households who get paid every two weeks as the reduction in cash flow is more on track with incoming income.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have accelerated bi-weekly payments of $2,078.10 with term savings of $1,217 and total amortization savings of $145,184. Plus, you would save 4 years, 12 months of payments by reducing scheduled amortization.

Weekly Payments: Similar to monthly payments, your weekly mortgage payment frequency is calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and dividing by 52 weeks in a year. In this case, you would make 52 payments a year on your mortgage.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have weekly payments of $957.50 with term savings of $253 and total amortization savings of $2,526. You can move to accelerated weekly payments to save even more!

Prepayment Privileges: In addition to fine-tuning your payment schedule, most mortgage products include prepayment privileges that enable you to pay up to 20% of the principal (the true value of your mortgage minus the interest payments) per calendar year. This can help reduce your amortization period (the length of your mortgage).

By exercising your prepayment privileges, you can take time off your mortgage. For instance:

  • Extra $50 bi-weekly is $32,883 total savings and an additional 1 year, 2 months time saved
  • Extra $100 bi-weekly is $62,100 in total savings and an additional 2 years, 3 months time saved on your mortgage
  • Extra $200 bi-weekly is $111,850 in total savings and an additional 4 years, 1 month of time saved on your mortgage.

Understanding the different payment frequencies can be key in managing your monthly cash flow. If you’re struggling to meet a large payment, breaking it up can be effective; while the same can be true of the opposite. Individuals struggling to make a weekly or bi-weekly payment, may benefit from one monthly sum where they have time to collect the funds.

Consider getting in touch with me today to determine what payment frequency is best for you OR you can download my app and calculate them for yourself!